CanPL in Year 3: A Half-Time Report

Written By Aria Popel

With each team set to play 28 games during the Canadian Premier League’s regular season, I wanted to take a look at some numbers during the halfway stage of the league’s junior year. The teams occupying the four playoff spots are Pacific FC (28 points in 15 games), Forge FC (25 points in 14), Cavalry FC (25 points in 14), and Valour FC (22 points in 14).

Original Twitter Thread

CanPL Standings.png

Each team played their first eight fixtures of the season in a bubble at Valour FC’s home stadium in Winnipeg (“The Kickoff”).

Valour FC made good of their home advantage, exiting the bubble top of the league with 18 points out of a possible 24, and 4 points ahead of Pacific and Cavalry. However, since the return to home markets on July 30, both of these teams as well as defending champions Forge FC have overtaken them in the standings.

Canadian Premier League Standings after Matchday 14

  1. Pacific FC* - 28 points, GD +9

  2. Forge FC - 25 points, GD +9

  3. Cavalry FC - 25 points, GD +3

  4. Valour FC* - 22 points, GD +5

  5. York United FC - 17 points, GD -6

  6. FC Edmonton - 14 points, GD -3

  7. HFX Wanderers FC - 14 points, GD -5

  8. Atlético Ottawa - 12 points, GD -12

    *15 games played

Looking at xG data provided by @canpldata, we can assess the quantity/quality of shots taken by each team (inspired by the work of @R_by_Ryo). The key finding is the high quantity and high quality chances HFX Wanderers are creating despite their league position (7th). This data also suggests that Cavalry FC and Valour FC are currently overperforming. Forge FC have the best numbers in the league in terms of Shot Quality and Shot Quantity.

CanPL Quality v Quantity of Shots Taken.png

Shot Quantity (Shots per 90) / Shot Quality (xG per 90)

  • Forge FC - 12.29 / 0.13

  • HFX Wanderers FC / 11.57 0.12

  • Pacific FC - 11.53 / 0.12

  • FC Edmonton - 11.43 / 0.1

  • League Average - 11.70 / 0.1175

  • York United FC - 10.57 / 0.12

  • Valour FC - 10.27 / 0.11

  • Cavalry FC - 10.00 / 0.11

  • Atlético Ottawa - 9.14 / 0.11

xPoints from xG differential.png

xPoints from xG differential (graphic by @theshortfuse)

I derived Expected Points (xPoints) using the xG and xGA data provided by the league. The numbers were converted based on a method referenced by @theshortfuse using the results from previous matches with similar xG differentials.

HFX Wanderers FC underperformed their expected points by the biggest margin.

After a massive squad turnover, the 2019 CPL Wooden Spoon winners surprised everybody by reaching the final of The Island Games in 2020. Despite their struggles this season, I would not be surprised to see them make a push for the playoff spots in the second half of 2021. Dropped points in recent games against Forge and Atlético are particularly salient examples where they could/should have earned more. If you haven’t watched the games, this video will show you exactly what I mean.

CanPL Expected Points.png

Expected Points per Game / Actual Points - xPoints (per Game)

  • Forge FC - 1.70 / 0.086

  • HFX Wanderers FC - 1.45 / -0.45

  • Pacific FC - 1.40 / 0.47

  • Cavalry FC - 1.30 / 0.49

  • League Average - 1.21 / 0.16

  • FC Edmonton 1.18 / 0.18

  • Valour FC - 1.07 / 0.39

  • York United FC - 0.86 / 0.36

  • Atlético Ottawa - 0.76 / 0.10

Forge FC are looking as strong as ever after winning back-to-back in 2019 and 2020… and it appears luck is on their side too.

References

  • https://theshortfuse.sbnation.com/2017/11/15/16655916/how-to-calculate-xpoints-analysis-stats-xg

  • https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2018/8/14/the-good-the-bad-and-the-unlucky-what-xpoints-tells-us-about-the-2018-mls-season

Aria Popel